I, AI (On the Unlikelyhood of Achievement of Human-Equivalent Cognition in Computational Neuroscientific Explorations)
I have to preface this post by saying that I happen to be reading Douglas Hofstadter’s latest book, I Am A Strange Loop, and, while some of these topics are covered in it, my discussion predates (and presages) my encounter with them in the text. In other words, while I am riffing on Hofstadter, I’m not ripping him off.
I believe that it will be extremely hard - well beyond the current estimates of futurists and Singularitarians like Ray Kurtzweil - to duplicate human cognition in silicon and code. While I was, and still am to some degree, wildly optimistic about the future of the computational study of cognition, reading Hofstadter’s new book has made me reflect more deeply on what has been called “Strong AI,” its possibility, its likelihood, and the form it would take.
I have become skeptical of predictions of human-equivalent artificial intelligence for three reasons, explained below. First, though, I have to say that I don’t think the limits will be strictly technological. In other words, I believe we will, within a couple of decades, have the raw processing power to emulate a sophisticated (if still somewhat simplified model) of a human mind, the sticking point being how to coax the hardware and software to give rise to such a thing.
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